Israel`s projection on Iran’s timeline to possibly enact a nuclear breakout is twice longer than the US projection. According to Israel`s minister of energy, Yuval Steinitz, confidently believes it would take 6 months for Iran to assemble the ingredients needed for a nuclear breakout. A number almost twice as what the US secretary of state Antony Blinken had earlier proposed. Iran embarked on its nuclear weapon manufacture following the withdrawal of the US from the 2015 Iran deal. The deal was meant to halt Iran`s plan to produce a nuclear weapon in exchange for a sanction amount to boost their economy.
Antony Blinken Projection
Basing his comments from the public reporting, Antony Blinken saw Iran’s nuclear weapon manufacture narrow down to months. A timeline of three to four months from the previous deal would have elongated the timeline. However, Yuval disagrees with Blinken. Yuval believes that the events in 2018 with Trump withdrawing from the deal took a toll on Iran`s nuclear project. As a result, the possibility of Iran’s nuclear breakout extends to six months. He further breaks down the production to a range of one to two years if Iran is to get back on its feet in weapon manufacture.
Israel speculations on the US re-embarking on 2015 deal
Ever since Biden expressed his concerns about the Iran deal, Israel is worried about the US renewing the Iran deal. Israel continues to oppose the deal due to expiration worries. The Prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, explained that the deal would not halt Iran`s aggression to manufacture weapons. Additional.ly, once the deal expired, the possibility of Iran embarking on its nuclear weapon production.
Iran nuclear break out
Following Trumps’ withdrawal, UN nuclear watchdogs affirm that enriched uranium production has extensively increased. From a previous 2.4 tones to more than 10 times in the previously agreed upon deal. The purification levels are back to 20% from the 3.67% limit set before. Iran is making efforts to achieve the 90% purification level fit for weapons production.