Somalia, long ranked among the world’s weakest military powers, is in advanced negotiations with Pakistan to acquire up to 24 JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets in a deal estimated at $900 million. If finalised, the agreement would represent Somalia’s most substantial defence investment in decades and a decisive step toward rebuilding its long-dormant air force.
According to Defence Security Asia, the talks signal a dramatic shift for Mogadishu, which has lacked a functional fixed-wing combat capability since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991. The proposed acquisition comes amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa and renewed debate over sovereignty, airspace control, and regional influence.
A deal shaped by regional shocks
The negotiations follow a major diplomatic jolt in late 2025, when Israel formally recognised Somaliland, the breakaway region that declared independence from Somalia in 1991. The decision made Israel the first United Nations member state to extend recognition to Somaliland, sharply escalating tensions across the region.
For Mogadishu, the move underscored vulnerabilities in its ability to defend national airspace and project sovereignty at a time when regional alignments are rapidly shifting. Control of airspace has become an increasingly sensitive issue, particularly as external actors expand their diplomatic and military footprints around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Somalia’s military weakness is stark. The Global Firepower 2026 Military Strength Index ranks the country 137th out of 145 globally, placing it among Africa’s least capable armed forces. The absence of combat aircraft has left Somalia dependent on foreign partners for aerial surveillance, air strikes, and airspace security.
Battling insurgency while rebuilding the state
The push to rebuild airpower comes as Somalia continues to confront al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked insurgent group that controls significant rural territory in southern and central Somalia and regularly carries out attacks in Mogadishu and surrounding areas.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, more than a third of Somalia’s population requires humanitarian assistance, with millions displaced internally. Al-Shabaab has also been accused of forced recruitment, including the conscription of children, further complicating efforts to stabilise the country.
Against this backdrop, Somali Air Force Commander Mohamud Sheikh Ali travelled to Islamabad in February 2026, accelerating discussions over the JF-17 acquisition. A Somali defence ministry official described the talks as both symbolic and practical.
“Our airspace must be protected by Somali hands,” the official said, framing the potential purchase as a declaration of sovereignty and a critical step in rebuilding national defence institutions after decades of collapse.
Why the JF-17?
Pakistan has aggressively marketed the JF-17 Thunder as a cost-effective alternative to Western fighter jets, particularly for countries with limited defence budgets. Pakistani Defence Production Minister Raza Hayat Harraj said Western aircraft, while often more technologically advanced, typically cost more than three times the price of a JF-17, which is estimated at between $30 million and $40 million per unit.
An Islamabad-based defence analyst noted that the aircraft’s appeal lies less in raw performance and more in the overall package. This includes flexible weapons integration, pilot training, maintenance support, spare parts, and fewer political conditions compared with Western suppliers.
Former Pakistan Air Force Air Commodore Adil Sultan added that the platform has gained credibility following operational deployments by the Pakistan Air Force. “The PAF demonstrated superior performance against much more expensive Western and Russian systems,” he said, making the jet attractive to air forces seeking affordability without sacrificing capability.
If completed, the roughly $900 million deal would be Somalia’s largest defence outlay since the Cold War era, according to Somali Guardian.
Shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa
The aircraft negotiations are unfolding alongside a broader realignment of political and security partnerships across the Horn of Africa and the Gulf. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has heightened sensitivities around territorial integrity, pushing Mogadishu to reassert control over its borders and airspace.
At the same time, Somalia has moved closer to Saudi Arabia, a regional heavyweight with deep military ties to Pakistan. Relations with the United Arab Emirates have cooled compared with previous years, signalling a recalibration of Mogadishu’s diplomatic priorities.
Internationally, Donald Trump has previously questioned the depth and sustainability of U.S. engagement in Somalia, criticising instability and raising concerns about continued American involvement. Despite this, the United States has maintained counterterrorism cooperation with Mogadishu, while Turkey continues to provide military training, infrastructure support, and limited airpower assistance.
For Washington and its allies, Somalia’s location along critical maritime routes linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean remains strategically significant. For Mogadishu, rebuilding an air force is increasingly seen not just as a military upgrade, but as a necessary assertion of statehood in a region where airspace control, alliances, and recognition carry profound political weight.
