For supporters of Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, his resounding victory in the just-concluded election is a vindication of his 40-year-long rule. He won with 72% of the vote, close to his highest-ever tally of 74% in Uganda’s first direct presidential election in 1996. It reinforces the 81-year-old’s claim that he still commands the support of the overwhelming majority of Ugandans, after seizing power as a rebel commander in 1986, ending the rule of the Milton Obote regime.
Museveni’s main election rival, the former pop star Bobi Wine, dismissed the result as “fake” and said he had gone into hiding following a raid on his home by security forces. Museveni campaigned largely on his track record, arguing that he has delivered political and economic stability in an era of global uncertainty. He pledged to steer Uganda toward achieving the status of a middle-income country by 2030, a milestone his supporters have framed as a fitting legacy for a man who will finish his seventh—and possibly final—term the following year. Museveni sees Uganda’s nascent oil industry as central to achieving that goal, telling voters that once exports commence, the economy would grow at double-digit rates. He has set October as the target date for the first crude oil exports via a 1,443 km pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania.
Despite his age, Museveni sought to project vitality and control. At one of his final campaign rallies, he told supporters that he had visited all of Uganda’s more than 140 electoral constituencies. Yet in early October, his team abruptly canceled several campaign events, citing unspecified “state duties”—an explanation that fueled speculation about his health. Subsequent pauses in his schedule only deepened concerns about fatigue and declining vitality.
For Wine, the election was a major blow. His share of the vote dropped from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time, despite Uganda’s overwhelmingly young population—a demographic long viewed as his natural base. From Wine’s perspective, the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing repeated disruptions of his rallies by security forces, including the use of tear gas and live ammunition, and alleging ballot stuffing, though no evidence has been provided. After two unsuccessful presidential bids, questions now hang over his political future, with a growing risk that he could follow the path of many opposition figures across Africa whose popular appeal was steadily eroded by sustained repression.
During the campaign, Wine embodied the energy and impatience of Uganda’s youth, while Museveni cast himself as the seasoned patriarch and guarantor of stability. Ultimately, voters opted for the latter, according to the disputed official results. Analysts caution against fixating on succession, noting that political change in Uganda happens gradually. Viewed through this lens, the election appears less a moment of transformation than a ritual that legitimizes deeper, slower shifts within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the state machinery it controls.
These shifts became evident during a cabinet reshuffle in March 2023 and were unmistakable in the August 2025 elections for the NRM’s Central Executive Committee. The process revealed a regime increasingly driven by succession politics rather than competition with an opposition largely neutralized by security forces or co-opted. It also highlighted the growing influence of army chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son and potential successor. Veteran figures from the party’s old guard were pushed aside, replaced by newer faces loyal to his son. Authority at State House has become increasingly decentralized, with day-to-day decisions overseen by Museveni’s eldest daughter, foreign relations handled by his half-brother Salim Saleh, and trade and economic policy shaped by his son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo. For the first time in Uganda’s modern history, all security matters are overseen by Gen Kainerugaba, reflecting the central role of the military in the country’s politics and the profound implications of this concentration of authority. It suggests that Uganda’s future is being shaped—and increasingly controlled—by Museveni’s son, even if he does not yet hold the title of head of state.
