The job deficit caused by the coronavirus pandemic is anticipated at 75 million in 2021 and 23 million in 2022.
The global forecast for the recovery of employment has been affected by the slower-than-expected vaccine roll-outs and reappearance of coronaviral variations in early 2021, with the ILO on Wednesday warning losses in both working hours and jobs will remain high throughout this year and 2022.
In its recent study, the ILO indicated that the growth of employment would be too weak for those who lost jobs or working time during the pandemic and the months that followed.
This year, equal to 10 million full-time jobs will be lost and the equivalent of the job losses during the pandemic will increase to 100 million. That’s 10 million more than the ILO’s January prediction.
Despite the economy’s recovery from its pandemic depths and rapid action by governments to provide much-needed fiscal stimulus, pandemic-induced employment shortages are expected to linger at 75,000,000 by 2021, dropping to 23,000 in 2022.
Last year, the global labor income was 3.7 trillion or 8.3 percent, lower than the pre-pandemic estimate – with a loss of $1.3 trillion or 5.3 percent in the first half of 2021.
This year, recurrent waves of COVID-19 infections have resulted in a significant loss of working hours.
Two regions – Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia – have suffered most seriously, with predicted working-time losses in the first quarter of 2021 topping eight percent and in the second quarter six percent.
The ILO warns that things will probably grow worse before they get better, stressing that the epidemic continues to worsen inequality and cause long-term scarring on employees.
The ILO warns that things will probably grow worse before they get better, stressing that the epidemic continues to worsen inequality and cause long-term scarring on employees.
Working it out: low-income countries, small businesses, and informal laborers
The coronavirus crisis has led to steady jobless growth. In 2019, 187 million people were unemployed, and 220 million in 2020. However, in 2021, 220 million are expected to be unemployed, with the ILO predicting that this figure will only be reduced by 205 million in 2022.
While unemployment in affluent and low-income nations is anticipated to remain high, the ILO concluded that middle-income countries are the most hit by joblessness. But both low and middle-income countries face slower job recovery, as they have limited access to coronavirus vaccinations and limitations on how much government fiscal expenditures can generate.
The goal of providing quality and productive jobs will feel like a war for the poorer nations. The report estimates that the average annual labor productivity growth in low-income nations will decrease to a negative rate of –1.1% by at least 2022.
The report also showed that small businesses – in particular in certain areas, including accommodation and food services, wholesale and retail commerce, construction, and manufacturing – now have significant amounts of debt.
According to an ILO survey of 4,520 small firms in 45 countries conducted during the height of the pandemic in 2020, up to 80 percent reported being in a financial relationship.
The Report also emphasized the condition of informal workers who were affected by the COVID-19 problem disproportionately. Around two billion informal laborers are employed worldwide, the 2019 ILO figures show.
These informal workers are more likely than their official counterparts to lose their jobs — and are more likely to slip into poverty due to their lower savings rates.
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