Over the next 67 years, the capital city of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, would most likely experience an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves, droughts, and severe flooding. These alterations will put a strain on public health as well as the infrastructure. They will also be felt most keenly by the citizens of the city who are at the greatest risk, namely those who live in informal settlements.
It is estimated that Addis Ababa’s metropolitan population, which is currently around 5.4 million, will reach close to 9 million by 2035, making it one of the cities in Africa with the fastest population growth.
Informal settlements, the primary destination for most migrants, are expected to take in this rise in the city’s overall population. In addition, informal settlements are characterized by infrastructure that is either non-existent or in disrepair, and they face the dual difficulties of climate change that is getting worse and inadequate urban environmental regulation.
Researchers from Tufts University and the Woodwell Climate Research Center analyzed data on flood danger and temperature for various periods, projecting their findings from the past into the future to determine the degree to which the city is susceptible to the effects of climate change.
Compared with the period between 2000 and 2020, we forecasted that the city’s extreme daily maximum temperatures would rise by approximately 1.7 degrees Celsius between 2040 and 2060. If temperatures rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius, we will see increased heat waves’ frequency, duration, and severity. Additionally, greater temperatures contribute to an increase in both the amount of water vapor and transpiration. This will jeopardize people’s health, ecosystems, infrastructure, ways of making a living, and food supply.
Particular southern neighborhoods, such as Akaki-Kaliti, Bole, and Nifas Silk-Lafto, have witnessed noticeably higher temperatures, particularly during the warm season from March to May. These neighborhoods are located in the south. And if we look to the future, temperature estimates for Nifas Silk-Lafto suggest an increase in the average temperature to 26.21 degrees Celsius between the years 2040 and 2060, followed by an additional increase to 27.78 degrees Celsius between the years 2070 and 2090.
An increase in temperature of 1.8 degrees Celsius is anticipated for March, April, and May, which fall within the warm season. According to the most recent data, the highest temperature reached on the hottest day of the year will increase by an average of 1.8 degrees Celsius. The Nifas Silk-Lafto sub-city has an average annual temperature of 24.70 degrees Celsius from 2000 to 2020.
Temperature increases of this scale will lead to public health concerns such as higher risks of malaria, which will disproportionately affect groups of people who are already vulnerable, such as the elderly, children, and women.
Addis Abeba has been plagued by a severe lack of precipitation on an annual basis for an average of three months during the past two decades. The Palmer Drought Severity Index evaluates temperature and precipitation data in a geographical area. Our research indicates that between 2040 and 2060, there will be an increase in the number of instances of extreme drought. Compared with the period between 2000 and 2020, the city is anticipated to endure an additional 1.6 months of acute drought per year. This is a 53% increase.
The city’s growing population, in conjunction with the increasing frequency of droughts, is contributing to an increase in water insecurity. The groundwater reserves that are kept for use during times of drought are already running low.
These droughts will have an impact on health as well as the production of hydroelectric energy and urban agriculture.
Flooding can be caused by an excessive amount of rainfall, particularly if it takes place in an urban location within a relatively short period. Addis Abeba faces a serious threat to its environment from flooding, particularly as a result of the fact that the city was built around three primary rivers.
The flow of rivers and the rate at which groundwater is replenished will both be impacted by climate change, raising the difficulty of water-related problems.
At the moment, around 67% of the population in Addis resides in areas that are prone to flooding. Central Addis, which has the greatest density of impervious surfaces like asphalt and concrete, is one of the areas of the city that is most at risk. Other areas of the city are also at risk. These factors contribute to the risk of flooding because they prevent water from seeping into the ground.
Other portions of the city that are at risk include the southern half of the city, which has a slope that is significantly flatter than the rest, preventing water from flowing away. The Nifas Silk-Lafto district has had a significant amount of development take place in the floodplain. Both of these regions are located in the city.
The threat posed by flooding will come from several different directions. The city suffers from deficient sewage treatment and drainage infrastructure, frequently clogged with garbage and other solid waste.
The citizens of the city will experience a significant impact as a result. One example is concerning one’s health.
According to the findings of our study, the city’s typical temperatures will create an environment where malaria can be transmitted throughout the year. There will need to be ongoing policy actions to mitigate the danger effectively.
Women who are pregnant and people who are already in their latter years are particularly susceptible to the adverse health effects of climate change. Because of preexisting health issues, decreased mobility, and weakened immune systems, older adults are more susceptible to the negative effects of heat and pollution. Temperature swings and diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria and Zika, might harm pregnant women.
You can learn more about how climate change will increase the number of deaths of children in Africa caused by hot weather here.
There will be a significant increase in people living in flood-prone areas. Ten percent of the city’s newly constructed neighborhoods are located inside an area at risk of flooding once every 100 years, endangering life and infrastructure.
People who live in informal settlements, which account for around 70 percent of Addis Ababa’s population, are particularly at risk. These communities take root in constrained and underutilized areas, such as riverbanks. They are in greater danger of flood damage, and the likelihood of it happening is growing.
According to the findings of our investigation, the gap in levels of vulnerability between formal and informal settlements stands at 0.6% at present. The diagram depicts the degree to which buildings in formal and informal settlements are likely to be impacted by flooding. It is anticipated to increase to 1.3% by 2050 and 1.6% by 2080.
There is an immediate need for policies to meet these situations’ demands. This is what we recommend:
The government should establish a climate adaptation and resilience office to incorporate climate resilience into urban planning. Following that, an impartial organization ought to evaluate the actual implementation of plans.
Investment in green infrastructure should be made as part of the city’s water management policy to ensure equitable access to water and sustainable water use.
Continue reading: Cities are not included in global climate finance; addressing this issue is essential to combating climate change.
Enhancing existing infrastructure by enhancing waste management, conducting public awareness campaigns edu,cating students in schools about the implications of climate change, and building effective structures for successful collaboration between government departments, non-governmental organizations, and foreign agencies.
The Fletcher School at Tufts University is where Abay Yimere, a Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, may be found.
