According to cocoa farmers, exporters, and pod counters, the first three months of the 2023/2024 season will see a 28.5% year-over-year decline in the amount of cocoa arriving at Ivory Coast ports due to unpredictable weather.
The primary crop, which will be harvested between October and March, has begun growing in the top-ranked chocolate producer in the world.
Twelve farmers in the vicinity of the cocoa belt, three cocoa pod counters, and five cocoa exporters all attributed the slowdown in bean arrivals to an anticipated lower yield from fields due to late and copious rains.
Growing cocoa requires consistent rainy spells interspersed with sunny intervals. However, there are poor growing conditions in the West African area, including major producers Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, which account for around 70% of the world’s supply.
Tiny blooms that develop into pods after severe rains destroyed 22 weeks in several Ivory Coast farms. According to a cocoa pod counter who spoke to Reuters, the pods on the trees began to yellow before they were ripe, and the fungus brown rot damaged the already-formed pods.
The pod counter stated, “Our counts and analysis of our data forecast a main crop production of around 900,000 metric tons for the period of October-December, and around 500,000 tons for the period of January-March.” He added that these projections could only be accomplished provided no more incidents prevented farming from taking place.
Arrivals for the 2022–2023 season ranged from October to December between 1.259 million tonnes and higher.
Analysts worry that the El Nio weather phenomenon will continue negatively affecting production in the 2023–2024 season.
Due to weather-related worries and subpar crop predictions from major growers, cocoa prices worldwide have risen recently, hitting their highest levels since 1977.
The harvest is on schedule. It will be a challenging season since there is now not enough cocoa, according to the CEO of a European export business who independently provided the same estimate as the pod counter.
Due to their lack of authorization to speak to the media, they both asked to remain anonymous.
Farmers in the cocoa belt of Ivory Coast told Reuters that two large harvests might be made in October and November, followed by a tapering-off period and a restart perhaps in January.
This week, a Reuters journalist visited fields in the Soubre region where trees had an abundance of yellow and green pods. Still, a few little branch chanterelles sprouted into new pods, and many blossoms had fallen off due to the persistent rain.
This year, I have one bag and am considering making a harvest in October and another in November. Still, I don’t see anything for December, said Ousmane Diawarra, who farms seven hectares in Soubre. “Last year, I already had nine 70 kg bags of cocoa in September, and I was able to make three other big harvests between October and December,” he said.
Exporters and pod counters estimate that Ivory Coast’s annual cocoa production will be approximately 1.9 million tons this season, down from over 2.3 million last season.
They were apprehensive about the yield for the mid-crop, which runs from April to September and makes up 30% of the nation’s yearly production.
“No one anticipates a harvest of 2 million tons this year. The greatest expected volume today is 1.9 million tons, and everyone agrees that there will be a decline of at least 300,000 tons, according to the director of a European cocoa export business with its headquarters in Abidjan.
