Diplomacy fails, pushing Sudan towards war. Sudan’s warring factions have proven the limited leverage the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and other foreign powers have in ending a two-month conflict, plunging the nation deeper into disaster by shooting through truces.
Diplomats partly blame rival regional powers for not seriously taking ceasefire talks in Jeddah.
One U.S. official noted that bringing more regional players to support negotiations, such as Egypt, which sees the army as the best hope for a stable neighbor, and the UAE, which has supported the RSF leader, may be important to success.
After almost two months of the war, Africa’s third largest nation and its 49 million people—close to 2 million of whom have already fled their homes—are hurtling toward a deeper humanitarian crisis, with its farms at risk of failing and aid unable to reach all those in need after swathes of the capital and west of Sudan became war zones.
“Nobody will negotiate in earnest until they feel that the military balance is not moveable anymore,” said Rift Valley Institute expert Magdi El Gizouli. “The internal dynamic of this war is a bit beyond what an external actor can really influence.”
Khartoum and capital residents reported renewed artillery fire and fighting on Sunday after the 24-hour truce ended. Since early June, the conflict had escalated.
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia, across the Red Sea from Sudan, sponsored talks in Jeddah. Despite U.S. sanctions and both sides’ commitment to discussions, every temporary truce has been broken.
Diplomats familiar with the negotiations believe the Jeddah process was faltering largely because important actors were absent, notably Egypt, which similarly has a general-turned-politician at its leadership, and the UAE, which has ties to RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
According to a senior U.S. State Department official, Cairo, and Abu Dhabi “do have specific leverage that could be helpful.”
A Cairo-based ambassador said a new African Union-led conference aimed to unite Arab and African states, including Egypt and the UAE. However, it was unclear if either country would impose actual pressure.
Kenya’s president announced on Tuesday that IGAD, another African group within the forum, would meet Hemedti and army head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in 10 days to end the war.
Mohamed Mokhtar, a senior counselor to Hemedti, stated the RSF supported the Jeddah and A.U. processes and that civilian parties should be included to establish a “comprehensive solution.”
Mokhtar told Reuters that Burhan could not be part of any future Sudanese authority, and Hemedti, who was with his forces on the battlefield, would head the RSF but not be political.
The army didn’t answer questions promptly.
