The Horn of Africa is Still a Hotbed of Conflict. The Maritime Agreement Between Somaliland and Ethiopia
Tensions in the Horn of Africa are still high seven months after a contentious deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia on New Year’s Day. There has been a lot of pushback against the deal, which would see Somaliland lease out some of its coastline to Ethiopia, especially in Somalia.
From Somalia’s Perspective: The Conflict
The marine agreement has been met with strong opposition from Somalia, which views it as aggressive and illegal. After declaring independence in 1991 after a protracted civil war, Somalia views Somaliland as an essential component of its landmass. The fury in Somalia has been intensified by reports that Ethiopia is considering recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign entity in return for port access. U.S. and African Union (AU) officials have called on all sides to reduce hostilities and have reaffirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Turkish Engagement in Diplomatic Efforts
Diplomatically, Turkey has offered to mediate the conflict by holding discussions in Ankara on July 1st with representatives from Somalia and Ethiopia. The foreign ministers of the two countries were there, but they avoided having private conversations. The Turkish foreign ministry characterized the discussions as open, friendly, and future-oriented, adding that they intend to meet again in September. It is possible that the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia could meet if everything go according to plan.
Exploring the Details of the Controversial Deal
The fact that Ethiopia and Somaliland have chosen not to publish the details of their agreement has only served to heighten the debate around it. The parties’ signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) seems to provide Ethiopia access to a port in Somaliland for both commercial and military traffic. Ethiopia may even be able to lease a stretch of coast for its navy. Somaliland may be offered a stake in Ethiopian Airlines as compensation. The situation is further complicated by contradictory claims regarding Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Although Ethiopia has not officially acknowledged what Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi said, he did say that the deal recognized Somaliland’s independence.
Somalia’s Response: Seeking Stability
The concept of Somaliland striking its own deals is quite troublesome for Somalia. Recalling its ambassador from Addis Abeba, Somalia denounced the pact the day after it was signed, viewing it as an aggressive gesture. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, president of Somalia, ratcheted up his rhetoric as well, branding Ethiopia an enemy and demanding national defense. Tens of thousands of people gathered to the streets of Mogadishu to protest the deal.
A Nation in Danger: Somaliland
Following its 1991 declaration of independence, Somaliland established its own government, police force, currency, and electoral system. None of the other countries have formally acknowledged its independence, even though it has all the hallmarks of a state. A major shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the area may occur if Ethiopia officially recognizes Somaliland.
Ethiopia’s Purpose: Exploring Opportunities for Maritime Access
With a population of over 100 million, landlocked Ethiopia lost its ports in the early 1990s when Eritrea seceded. The prime minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, has called the lack of access to maritime waters an existential threat to his country. As a nonviolent effort, Ethiopia has portrayed the agreement with Somaliland as momentous. Nevertheless, there are concerns that Ethiopia could use force to accomplish its maritime goals. While suggesting that innovative thinking is necessary to attain national goals, Abiy’s remarks emphasize a dedication to nonviolence.
In sum: The Future Is Uncertain
The fate of the Somaliland-Ethiopian accord is up in the air as diplomats keep working on it and the sides get ready for more negotiations. The stability of the region and international relations in the Horn of Africa will be greatly affected by the resolution of this dispute.
