Banana Prices Set to Surge Amidst Climbing Temperatures

Bananas may face a price hike due to the impacts of climate change, warns Pascal Liu, a senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. He highlights that climate-related challenges pose a significant threat to banana supply, exacerbating the consequences of fast-spreading diseases. The World Banana Forum, which recently convened in Rome, discussed these challenges, with recent storms causing shortages of bananas in some UK shops.

The UK, a major consumer of bananas, annually imports approximately 5 billion of the fruit, with 90% sold through major supermarkets. While short-term weather events, like storms at sea, can cause temporary disruptions in the supply chain, experts are growing increasingly concerned about the long-term threats posed by a warming planet and the associated diseases.

Climate change’s impact on banana production includes severe weather events affecting cultivation and rising temperatures that can devastate crops in specific regions. Of immediate concern is Fusarium Wilt TR4, a fungal infection that has spread from Australia and Asia to Africa and South America. Once a plantation is infected, the fungus kills all banana trees, presenting a significant challenge for eradication.

Rising temperatures contribute to the accelerated spread of diseases like Fusarium Wilt TR4, which has mutated to affect the Cavendish banana variety, the world’s most popular. The fungus’s spores are highly resilient, spreading rapidly through flooding and strong winds, making control difficult.

Banana producers are also grappling with challenges such as rising costs of fertilizers, energy, transportation, and labor shortages. Coupled with the impacts of climate change, these factors are expected to lead to higher and sustained banana prices in the UK and globally. Liu projects that unless there is a significant increase in supply, banana prices will remain relatively high in the coming years.

The World Banana Forum is actively addressing the critical issue of sustainability in the industry. As consumers increasingly seek sustainably produced bananas, growers are adopting greener production methods and undergoing certification to verify the sustainability of their fruit. While these regulations contribute to making production systems more sustainable, Liu notes that they also come with additional costs for producers, which may ultimately be passed on to consumers.