The analysis indicates that by the middle of the century, the percentage of factory jobs in most African countries would have decreased. This suggests that these nations are less likely to adopt East Asia’s development strategy of increasing manufacturing to lift people out of poverty.
According to a new report published Monday by the Center for Global Development, there will be fewer industrial workers worldwide in 2050 than today, and the expansion of manufacturing jobs will plateau even in developing nations with a surplus of cheap labor.
China stands ahead among the 59 nations analyzed in the report, increasing its manufacturing production share to 43.8% in 2050 from 30% in 2018 and 10.5% in 1975.
According to the Study’s authors, China will keep leading the world in manufacturing as it expands into higher-value markets.
Although this might allow other developing nations in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to transition from agriculture to lower-end manufacturing in low-end sectors China has abandoned, it won’t be sufficient to duplicate the revolutionary East Asian development model.
Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake, senior associates at CGD, argue that many nations will instead shift directly from agriculture to services, where employment will increase due to new technology, even in countries like Ethiopia and Bangladesh. “There’s still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests it’s not going to happen,” stated Kenn.” “We think farms will empty across Africa and Asia in the coming decades. Still, people will likely flood into offices and shops, not factories.”
The research estimates changes in the economies of 59 nations, which together account for almost three-quarters of the world’s GDP and population, and anticipates global growth through the year 2050.
Even among the lowest-income nations, it predicts that over the next 30 years, the number of factory employment will not keep up with population growth, and manufacturing will probably continue to play a minor role in the economy of the majority of these nations.
The analysis concludes that manufacturing employment is expected to remain stable at less than 8% of total work in all low-income nations. According to the projection, the percentage of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to decline, from 11.4% to 8.3% in 2050.
According to this prediction, occupations in the private service industry will account for nearly 37% of all jobs worldwide by 2050, up from 12% presently and 26% of jobs in low-income nations today.
