Africa is poised to lead global high-impact oil and gas exploration in 2026, accounting for roughly 40% of planned high-impact wells, driven by ultra-deepwater plays along the Atlantic margin. Operators are increasingly targeting frontier and capital-intensive prospects to secure large, long-life resources, as mature basins deliver diminishing returns.
Strong Momentum in Upstream Exploration
The upstream sector is expected to carry strong momentum into 2026 following a solid 2025. Last year, the success rate for high-impact wildcat wells rose to 38% from 23% in 2024, while total discovered volumes increased by 53% year-on-year to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), according to Rystad Energy research.
High-impact wells are designated based on factors such as potential resource size, their ability to open new plays in frontier or emerging basins, and their strategic significance to operators. In 2026, 42 high-impact wells are expected globally, with Africa maintaining the largest share, particularly along the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa.
“What we are seeing in 2026 is a clear shift in where operators are willing to deploy capital. Ultra-deepwater and frontier plays remain capital-intensive, but they also offer scale and material upside,” said Aatisha Mahajan, Head of Exploration, Oil & Gas Research, Rystad Energy.
“Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries, particularly for operators looking to secure long-life resources in a tightening global supply environment.”
Ultra-Deepwater and Frontier Focus
Ultra-deepwater wells will account for around 60% of planned drilling, led primarily by international majors, with national oil companies (NOCs) and international NOCs (INOCs) representing an additional 26%. Most wells will target frontier regions, while about 5% will test basins with prior discoveries that could develop into hydrocarbon hotspots, and another 5% will explore entirely new plays. Notably, all onshore high-impact drilling in 2026 is expected to take place in Africa, except for a Greenland well targeting the Jameson Land frontier.
Outside Africa, Asia accounts for eight high-impact wells, with Indonesia leading (four), followed by India and Malaysia (two each). Between 2021 and 2025, these countries awarded most of the region’s new acreage, largely offshore, while Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China dominated onshore awards.
Over the past decade, Asia has recorded approximately 18 billion boe of conventional hydrocarbon discoveries, with gas representing about 62% of total volumes. Discovery volumes have been highly concentrated, and new high-impact growth will increasingly depend on unlocking less mature basins or technically challenging fields.
In North America, exploration performance has weakened since 2022, with yearly discovered volumes falling below previous decade lows. Canada and Mexico have largely stalled, leaving the US Gulf of America as the main source of new volumes, concentrated in mature, heavily explored basins. In 2025, total discoveries fell to around 238 million barrels, with Mexico contributing three finds (~68 million barrels) and the US Gulf adding four (~170 million barrels).
This reliance on mature basins, combined with declining discovery volumes, suggests limited upside for conventional exploration in North America, leaving Africa as the global frontier for high-impact oil and gas exploration in 2026.
