Recent events in the Horn of Africa point to rising tensions and changing alliances, with Egypt at the center of the transformation taking place in the region. The worldwide attention around a substantial shipment of military weapons from Egypt to Somalia has heightened concerns regarding the future stability of the area. Regional powers like Somaliland and Ethiopia have taken notice of this development, as it is the second shipment of military supplies in as many weeks.
Given the complex nature of geopolitical interests, it is essential to comprehend the wider geopolitical consequences of this military backing in order to evaluate the changing scenario.
A Growing Bond Between Egypt and Somalia
A stronger bond between Egypt and Somalia is demonstrated by the latest shipment of Egyptian forces to the Horn of Africa. On social media, Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur thanked Egypt for its support, although he didn’t mention the military hardware by name. There are concerns over the alliance’s strategic goals brought up by the cargo’s alleged anti-aircraft guns and artillery.
As ties between Somalia and Ethiopia, two countries that were once close allies, continue to worsen, Egypt is making an effort to strengthen its connections with Somalia, including this military cargo. Somalia is becoming increasingly frustrated with Ethiopia’s increasing regional power, especially as a result of its arrangement with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, and Mogadishu is being pushed further toward Cairo as a result.
Intensifying Conflict with Ethiopia: A Long-Lived Rivalry
The deepening friendship between Egypt and Somalia is further complicating the already delicate political climate in the Horn of Africa. Being landlocked, Ethiopia has always depended on Somalia as a maritime gateway and has been an important ally in Somalia’s struggle against the al-Shabab insurgent organization. But this dynamic has changed because of recent occurrences. Because the Somali government still considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory, it is understandably enraged by Ethiopia’s choice to sign a preliminary deal with Somaliland for coastal access.
An age-old animosity between Egypt and Ethiopia has always revolved over who gets to regulate the Nile. There has been a lot of back and forth about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia, with Egypt being very concerned that it will cut off a lot of water from the Nile. With the Nile issue still going strong, Egypt’s expanding sphere of influence in Somalia may be viewed as a calculated attempt to oppose Ethiopia’s regional aspirations.
Implications for the Military: Worries About an Arms Race Heightening
Particularly in Somaliland, worries have been voiced about the military hardware that Egypt has sent to Somalia. An arms race might be sparked by the unfettered spread of weapons, according to Somaliland’s foreign ministry, which has voiced concern about the growing militarization in Somalia. The deployment of sophisticated military hardware to a region already riven by violence and political unrest has the potential to heighten tensions even further.
Somaliland has been extremely outspoken in its rejection of the weapon shipment; the territory declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but is still not recognized by the international community. An arms race could break out in the Horn of Africa if different groups there decide to increase their military might in reaction to rival claims of aggression.
Regional Consequences: Ethiopia’s Reaction and What Lies Ahead
Despite these events, Ethiopia has not said anything. Ethiopia voiced its displeasure after Egypt’s first weapons shipment to Somalia in August, threatening that it would not “stand idle while other actors take measures to destabilize the region.” The escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, together with Egypt’s increasing influence in Somalia, have led to this protest from Ethiopia.
As part of an African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission, Ethiopian forces are assisting the Somali government in its battle against al-Shabab. A new-look African Union force, which might include as many as 5,000 Egyptian soldiers, is considering sending troops to Somalia, further complicating matters. The Horn of Africa could become even more unstable if tensions between regional heavyweights Egypt and Ethiopia escalate due to their forces’ deployment in Somalia.
Exploring the Broader Geopolitical Landscape: Egypt’s Approach
An expansion of Egypt’s influence in the Horn of Africa—a strategically important area for the country’s defense—may explain its growing engagement in Somalia. Egypt shores up its position against Ethiopia and acquires a strategic footing in the Red Sea region—a vital maritime route for global trade—by strengthening its ties with Somalia.
The Situation in Somaliland: Caught Between Two Wars
An unstable situation has developed in Somaliland as a result of the rising tensions among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Somaliland has signed agreements with Ethiopia to lease portions of its coastline as part of its efforts to create its path in the region as an unrecognized state seeking greater autonomy. Somaliland is striving for international recognition and security, but it faces challenges from an area that is becoming more militarized and the possibility of an arms race.
Last Thoughts on the Horn of Africa’s Future
Conflict is more likely to break out as the militarization of the Horn of Africa continues to rise. The regional power dynamic has been profoundly altered by Egypt’s military backing for Somalia, which signifies a dramatic change in regional alliances. Compounding matters is the worsening of relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, as well as Egypt’s animosity towards Ethiopia due to the Nile.
